Early presidential polls in MIC?

COMMENT On the surface, it all appears quiet on the MIC front. But the grassroots is abuzz with news of a possible early presidential election. The head counting of branch chairmen has begun.Of late, branch chairmen are being wooed by the party's top leaders and meetings are frequently held. It is the branch chairmen who would vote in the presidential election.Since announcing that he would be step down in September 2011 to pave the way for a leadership transition and that his deputy G Palanivel would take over, S Samy Vellu has not made a single move. So would the 74-year-old president relinquish the post he has held for three decades?

At the recent MIC general assembly, widely rumoured to be Samy Vellu’s last as president, there was no indication or talk that he was going to step down soon.On the contrary, Samy Vellu has been making more announcements and holding seminars for MIC leaders on the next general election as though he is going to lead the MIC through the polls.Rumours of an early presidential election have also raised a legal poser whether the MIC constitution allows for this as the current president's term only expires in May 2012. The clause in question (Clause 58.3) reads as follows:
“Not later than three months before the expiry of the term of the office of the president, the central working committee (CWC) shall appoint an election committee to conduct the election...”Based on this clause, it is clear that the CWC can call for a presidential election at any time, even tomorrow.

The doctor changes gear

According to sources, instead of handing over the reins to Palanivel, Samy Vellu might announce that he wants the next president to be democratically elected and call for an early presidential polls.Since he still controls the majority of CWC members, there would not be any problems in pushing this through.Several factors and some of the movements of the top leaders are fuelling the speculation. Talk is that Palanivel and vice-president Dr S Subramaniam are preparing for battle.

During his recent visit to Penang, Subramaniam held a dinner for all the branch chairmen. Such dinners are rarely held at this point, since the party election was held last year.Furthermore, even if such dinners are held, those invited would be division leaders who are delegates to the general assembly. However in Penang, it was the branch chairmen who vote for the president, who were invited.

After the Penang meeting, Subramaniam held a “meet the people session” at the Kuala Selangor MIC division in Selangor to solve several local issues together with the branches there.Since becoming MIC's sole Cabinet member by virtue of being appointed human resources minister, Subramaniam has seldom gone down to the grassroots, preferring to focus on his ministerial duties. So his recent actions have sparked off speculation that he might be vying for the top post.It is said that Subramaniam has also received the blessings of Samy Vellu, and his supporters are confident that with his ministerial position, he would be able to win the top post.

Meanwhile, Samy Vellu has announced that some 2,000 new MIC branches would be formed to strengthen and prepare the party for the next general election.However, sources described this as a strategy to propel voters' strength in the event of a presidential election. They claimed that the branches are being formed secretively and potential chairmen are being vetted by a team comprising Subramaniam, Youth chief T Mohan, Vell Paari (Samy Vellu’s son) and former secretary-general G Vadiveloo.Simultaneously, several branches have been sent show-cause notices for not attending the 2010 general assembly. Sources said this could be a ploy to get rid of rebel branches.

Palanivel on the prowl as well

On the other hand, Palanivel, armed with his new deputy minister post, has also started to make his move, holding meetings with key branch leaders.Having successfully defended his deputy presidency for the second consecutive term, the former journalist and press secretary to Samy Vellu is determined to take over the helm. His strongest advantage is that he would automatically become acting president if Samy Vellu steps down.Palanivel is also said to have earned the support and sympathy of many party veterans and division leaders since they feel he should be given the opportunity to lead because of his seniority and experience.

His supporters point out that Subramaniam is after all “a leader by two defaults” and did not work his way up the party hierarchy like Palanivel.Subramaniam’s first default was when he was selected as the MP for Segamat merely because of his name and initial. Samy Vellu had picked him to replace his nemesis and former number two S Subramaniam for the seat.The second default was becoming minister after the 2008 general election, following Samy Vellu's defeat. If the latter had won in Sungai Siput, he would have continued as MIC's sole cabinet member.

However, Subramaniam is said to still have an edge due to rumours of strained ties between Samy Vellu and Palanivel.Sources claimed that of late, Samy Vellu has not been saying nice things about his deputy and even made some negative remarks about Palanivel to his close associates.
Who can get the nominations?

In the event of a presidential election, the uphill task for a candidate would be to get the required nominations to make the person eligible to contest.The MIC constitution requires a presidential candidate to get at least 50 nominations endorsed by six branch chairmen. This means that a candidate should have at least 300 branch chairmen to endorse his nomination papers.Sources said apart from Samy Vellu, there are only three leaders who can achieve this – Subramaniam, Palanivel and former deputy president S Subramaniam.
Although the former deputy president is keeping a low-profile, he however might decide to give it one last attempt or perhaps even back a particular candidate, and the latter move could tilt the odds.

The fourth possible contender might be former vice-president S Sothinathan. Although it would be difficult for him to secure the required nominations, he too could throw his weight behind one of the candidates. Speculation is also rife that the Barisan Nasional leadership is pressuring Samy Vellu to step down by the end of this year, and according to sources, behind-the-scene deals are being struck.With the ouster of Sarawak’s Chief Minister Taib Mahmud looking imminent, it might not be possible for Samy Vellu to cling on to his position any longer.If such a scenario takes place, then Palanivel would automatically assume the position of acting president and embark on the herculean task of winning back Indian support.

Source : http://www.freemalaysiatoday.com/fmt-english/opinion/comment/9854-early-presidential-polls-in-mic